The U.S. midterm election in November is shaping up to be a referendum on Trump 2.0. We examine historical equity market performance surrounding midterm elections, and what this might be—or might not be—suggesting for this year and next.
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U.S. equity markets are at record levels, supported by resilient corporate earnings and investors looking past geopolitical risks in the Middle East. However, a widening gap is emerging between asset prices and underlying economic conditions.